In 1984, Dr Bill Gray at Colorado State University documented that Atlantic hurricane activity responded to a variety of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic parameters spanning various portions of the globe. Lea nuestro resumen de pronóstico en español aquíĭESCRIPTION OF CLIMATE FACTORS INFLUENCING ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY Forecast Factors Check the latest tropical cyclone impact probabilities here. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. We continue to anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Current La Niña conditions are likely to persist for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season. Vertical wind shear anomalies averaged over the past 30 days over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are slightly weaker than normal.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, while subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal. We have decreased our forecast but continue to call for an above-average 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. *Total forecast includes Alex, Bonnie and Colin which have formed in the Atlantic as of August 3.ĬSU released its updated extended range forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on 4 August 2022. +A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction definedĪs the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10 4 knots 2) for each 6-hour

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